Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

Ep. 37: Bad Idea of the Year - Wage and Price Controls

Why can't policymakers take a year off from dumb ideas every now and then? In this episode, the Inflation Guy addresses the various concerning clues that Powerful People are thinking about implementing wage and price controls to address high inflation. Because, evidently, they'd rather have shortages and ration cards. This is a bad idea; it has always been a bad idea; it has never worked and never will. Let's stop it before it gets started. (Yes, this is a rant.)

Ep. 36: This Month’s CPI Report - A Sticky Situation

In the monthly CPI analysis, the Inflation Guy highlights the dichotomy from today's CPI report: all of the things that improved, and led to a surprise in core CPI, were 'supply chain', flexible things; meanwhile the sticky stuff like rents and medical care continued to be problematic. Does this help the Fed? Does it help the market? Does it help the Fed help the market? Listen to find out.

Ep. 35: Will the Inflation Reduction Act Reduce Inflation?

This is a quick 'policy brief' focusing specifically on whether the Inflation Reduction Act will actually reduce inflation or not. The overall answer is somewhat milquetoast, but the details are interesting. The big question is, why do the bill's sponsors suppose it will reduce inflation? The answer is revealing.

Ep. 34: Velocity Turns Higher...Whoops!

Let's see, the cue card here says that money velocity is an anachronistic concept; velocity is a plug number that has no economic significance; its value has been 'disproven'; and anyway velocity is dead forever so, not to worry.

It's a good thing that the Inflation Guy doesn't read cue cards! Otherwise, he might not have expected the current turn higher in money velocity, and he might be tempted to believe market pricing that says inflation is about to obediently plunge back to the Fed's target. And where would be the fun in that?

Ep. 33: This Month’s CPI Report - Not Good

The Inflation Guy is running out of ...what's the opposite of "superlatives?"...to describe the current inflation environment. The July CPI report was yet another new high and yet another upside surprise. So what is the Fed going to do in response? And why does the market seem so confident that inflation is about to plunge back to 2%, when it is still rising at the moment?

Ep. 32: The Remarkable Story of Inflation Futures

So they told the Inflation Guy: "People love 'whodunnits.'" We don't really know why they told him that but in any event we have one here: what a story! The tale of inflation futures starts in the 1800s; it has economists and hippies and heroes and villains; a noble quest and a tragic ending. Or is it really tragic? Or is it really an ending? Listen and find out!

Ep. 31: Why Gold is Like TIPS (or Vice-Versa)

Gold isn't as simple as it looks, or feels. Or smells, for that matter. In this episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy explains why gold doesn't act much like a short-term inflation hedge, but actually behaves much more like TIPS. Should gold have an outsized position in your portfolio? Depends how you feel about inflation-linked bonds!

Ep. 30: This Month’s CPI Report: General Alarm

The Inflation Guy starts out his discussion of today's CPI report with a warm, folksy, home-spun tale. Because why can't inflation be warm and folksy? The problem is that today's data crushed the existing paradigm on which the market was depending - and opened up a whole new can of worms. The concern is not specific; it's general. And that's the problem.

Ep. 29: Waves and the Tide - What Housing Data is Really Saying

The housing data for Existing Home Sales and Existing Home Sales over the last week have been very interesting not for the data themselves but for how they have been interpreted. The Inflation Guy in his inimitable style geeks out on the cognitive errors that are being manifested in these interpretations, and sets the record straight about how we need to adjust our thinking now that we no longer live in a stable inflation world.

Ep. 28: This Month’s CPI Report - Peak Changes, not Peak Prices

Have we peaked? Well, arguably the Inflation Guy peaked in his 20s but we are talking about inflation here. While CPI has nominally peaked in terms of its year over year rate of change, that doesn't mean prices are going to go 'back to normal.' Even more important: it doesn't mean that we have reached peak inflation pressure. Listen while the Inflation Guy explains.