Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

Ep. 14: This Month‘s CPI Report - 100% Policy Error

The Inflation Guy walks through this month's inflation number, which reaches levels we could scarcely have imagined just two years ago...and it isn't done yet. It's broader, and faster, and it's 100% policy error. Moreover, it's a policy error that will be very hard to undo - and maybe can't be completely undone at this point.

Ep. 13: Some General Thoughts About Inflation-Aware Investing

Can a 27-minute podcast be a substitute for a thoughtful conversation with an inflation-aware adviser? Probably not, but it is a decent first step for an investor who wants to be inflation aware (and wants to be able to discern and avoid advisers who aren't!) In this podcast, the Inflation Guy talks about the current environment and some general implications for navigating an investment environment which will be markedly different over the next ten years compared to what it was for the last quarter-century.

Ep. 12: How Many Swallows Make a Spring?

One swallow does not make a spring, it is said. But eventually, enough swallows would seem to indicate a higher probability of spring. In this podcast, the Inflation Guy connects the transitory swallow to transitory price increases and asks, "is it spring yet?"

Ep. 11: This Month‘s CPI Report - What Did You THINK Would Happen?

This month's CPI report was upsetting to the Inflation Guy. The inflation news is getting worse, and there is no longer any mystery that this is not a temporary, one-off problem. Moreover, the cause is clear and we have seen this coming for a while. It's enough to turn one's stomach. The Inflation Guy walks through the number, explains the significance of the pieces and describes what it is about this report that bothers him most.

Ep. 10: A High-Velocity Tour of Velocity

In this episode of Cents & Sensibility, the Inflation Guy conducts a quick tour of the concept of monetary velocity. Velocity, which is the "V" in the "MV=PQ" equation that is at the heart of monetarism, is oft-maligned and oft-misunderstood. The Inflation Guy explains what velocity is, describes the main drivers of velocity, and suggests why the current setup is potentially concerning for inflation over the next few years.

Ep.9: This Month‘s CPI Report - A Watershed Moment

The Inflation Guy talks about a couple of the salient points from yesterday's CPI report - indications that "Team Transitory" has been routed and sent off the field in disgrace.

Ep.8: Hari Seldon, Psychohistory, and the Failings of Modern Macroeconomics

Isaac Asimov's character (from the Foundation series, now an Apple TV series) Hari Seldon is a psychohistorian, which basically means he is a macro-behavioral economist. But he has a much better forecasting rate and a much longer horizon than today's economists. Why? What can we learn from Asimov's invention of 'psychohistory,' and are there any hints that group behavior may be more predictable than it seems to be in practice? Yup!

Ep. 7: Rents and Sensibility

The biggest weight in most inflation baskets is the cost of shelter. Its weight also implies its importance, since measuring shelter wrong means you're measuring inflation wrong! In this episode of Sense and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy explains why "Primary Rents" doesn't rise as rapidly as the change in asking rents, and why "Owner's Equivalent Rent" is a concept that makes sense - and is a very necessary concept for measuring shelter inflation of owner-occupied housing.

Ep. 6: Evergrande and Inflation - Why the Model Matters

Today's global decline in stocks, if it turns into something more serious, will affect the inflation debate. In this episode of the Inflation Guy Podcast, the IG explains how asset price declines and the relationship of those declines to growth forecasts cause different effects if you are driven by a classical/Keynesian view of the world, rather than a monetarist view. While this decline may not turn out to be very large, someday the stock market will decline - and how central banks look at that event will directly affect policy. But...should it?

Ep. 5: Stagflation from a Monetarist‘s Perspective

"Stagflation" is a term we hear frequently today, as inflation indicators rise and the growth outlook has been looking less-rosy every week. How does a monetarist, as opposed to a Keynesian, think about the conditions that cause a stagflationary outcome? In this episode, the Inflation Guy walks the listener through the Equation of Exchange (MV=PQ), asking how we can get a high change in "P" associated with a low change in "Q."