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His audiences know him as THE ”Inflation Guy.” In the inflation markets he is known as a pioneer. He is considered as the Expert to the experts in the world of inflation markets where true expertise is hard to find. In this podcast the Inflation Guy talks about the hidden tax, the insidious assault on your wealth, and how to defend your money. Have a question? Email InflationGuy@enduringinvestments.com
Episodes
Thursday Apr 18, 2024
Thursday Apr 18, 2024
We don't know if the origin of the 'ten most dangerous words in the English language' was Ronald Reagan, or if the story predates him. But those words, "I'm from the government, and I'm here to help you," are the theme to today's podcast. The Inflation Guy interprets some recent news stories, but ties it all together with a crucial observation about what happens if the 'scarce resource' in a particular economy turns out to not be 'labor.'
NOTES
Dan Bongino Show from April 18 (https://megaphone.link/WWO9433765103 ). Listen from the 47 minute mark.
Forbes “Medical Analysis by Milton Friedman” (2009)
Washington Post “Biden administration to cap rent increases for some affordable housing units”
Blog Callback: “Inflation and Insurance Companies, with Bill Poutsiaka”
Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today”
Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2024)
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Wednesday Apr 10, 2024
Wednesday Apr 10, 2024
On this month's CPI report, the Inflation Guy addresses yet another high-side surprise and discusses the details, along with how this fits into the continuing narrative. Curious about how this concerns ponies? You'll have to listen to the episode!
NOTES
Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2024)
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Wednesday Apr 03, 2024
Wednesday Apr 03, 2024
Okay, buckle up because the Inflation Guy here is going to cover some big-time concepts. Wayyyy back in 2003, some guys named Jarrow and Yildirim explained how inflation acts just like foreign exchange, except not foreign and not on an exchange. No, no, stay with me here. Turns out they were right, and a lot of what is happening today - and the mistakes in interpretation that are being made - can be understood if you understand that the 'inflation FX market' has just changed in important ways. This is an important episode!
NOTES
Jarrow R, Yildirim Y (2003) Pricing treasury inflation protected securities and related derivatives using an HJM model. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 38(2):337–359. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=585828
Unidad de Fomento (Wikipedia entry): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unidad_de_Fomento
Chart: Nominal and inflation-adjusted Case-Shiller 10-City index, normalized to end of 2019
Chart: Nominal and Real S&P 500 Earnings, normalized to end of 2019
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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Friday Mar 22, 2024
Friday Mar 22, 2024
Every once in a while, it is a good rigor to take all of those sticky notes that festoon your desk and put them into one, organized, document. At least, that's what the Inflation Guy tells himself. On the other hand, they say 'a clean desk means someone else is in charge.' Still, it was getting to be a fire hazard.
In this episode, the Inflation Guy tackles a few disparate stories and recent trends that seem to have an overarching theme: the general disinflationary trend we have been enjoying for the last year is starting to have some defectors.
NOTES
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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Tuesday Mar 12, 2024
Tuesday Mar 12, 2024
Another month, another above-consensus CPI print. The Inflation Guy tears into the data like a feral cat, ripping away the fatty bits to get at the meaty part. Okay, maybe that was too graphic. Anyway, this cat points to several signs in this month's inflation report that inflation is starting to get 'sticky' at a higher level than we'd like it to, and the recent inflation deceleration is going to get more difficult going forward. What is the implication for Fed policy?
NOTES
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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Thursday Mar 07, 2024
Thursday Mar 07, 2024
Both gold and crypto are occasionally put forth by promoters as having inflation-hedging qualities. Which of these has a better claim? Or are they both 'real assets' that can help you defend your money?
Now that mutual funds and ETFs are launching seemingly weekly to hold BTC and other forms of crypto, 'democratizing access' to this 'asset class,' it is worth asking whether these funds are securities that should be included in every investor's toolkit.
Listen to this episode before you take the plunge. In it, the Inflation Guy makes a very clear prediction about what is to come.
NOTES
Podcast callback: Ep. 86: If Gold is Like TIPS, Should I Buy it?
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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Thursday Feb 29, 2024
Thursday Feb 29, 2024
This somewhat longer episode has a little bit of potpourri at the beginning, as the Inflation Guy covers the OER-Primary Rents divergence, the decline of Reverse RP balances, and the effect of AI on inflation...but the meat of the podcast is a discussion about a product (which a listener sent to the Inflation Guy) that resembles an inflation-linked annuity but in a mutual fund form. There are pros and cons to the product, and the IG covers them all before giving it a cautious thumbs up.
The Inflation Guy is pleased that we are starting to see more and more innovative products, even if there are still plenty of frontiers as yet unexplored. So he continues to boldly go where no inflation guy has gone before!
NOTES
Podcast callback: Ep. 54: Will Artificial Intelligence Kill Inflation?
Blog Post: AI: Even a Big Deal is Smaller Than You Think
Company reference: Stone Ridge Asset Management (Lifex Funds)
Google Sheet with Speculative Subcomponent Inflation Swaps: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/118FRJVhjGTLoRr1ebqfZn7opTlavtmt8XuyAQHicx5I/edit#gid=0
Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa
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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Friday Feb 23, 2024
Friday Feb 23, 2024
When your grandpa turns 100, you're going to hear stories. It just goes with the territory. When a podcast has its 100th episode, same deal.
Grandpa Inflation Guy actually manages to keep the stories to a minimum, while reporting on a recent conversation he has had about a development in the health care inflation space and giving some optimistic readings about the future to the gathered listeners.
Now for some cake!
NOTES
Podcast callback: Ep. 98: Will You Be Able to Trade Medical Care Inflation Soon?
Podcast callback: Ep. 97: Inflation and Reinsurance - a Better Way
Google Sheet with Speculative Subcomponent Inflation Swaps: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/118FRJVhjGTLoRr1ebqfZn7opTlavtmt8XuyAQHicx5I/edit#gid=0
Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Tuesday Feb 13, 2024
Tuesday Feb 13, 2024
Welllll...so much for the idea that, since the 3-month average of CPI was down at 1.90%, the Fed could ease in March! This month's inflation print was, to use a technical term, broadly icky. The Inflation Guy tells you why.
NOTES
Podcast callback: Ep. 98: Will You Be Able to Trade Medical Care Inflation Soon?
Blog Post: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (Jan 2024)
Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Thursday Feb 08, 2024
Thursday Feb 08, 2024
The Inflation Guy for a long time has had a "bee in his bonnet" (seriously, who uses this phrase? Or owns a bonnet?) about the need for more tools to trade inflation and, especially, subcomponents of inflation like medical care. In this episode, after giving a quick preview of next week's CPI report he turns to a discussion of IMX, a new futures exchange that has expressed an intention to trade instruments related to medical care. At the end of January, the IMX announced its first futures contract. Does it get the ball rolling towards being able to trade medical care inflation? Listen to find out the Inflation Guy's take.
NOTES
Podcast callback: Ep. 32: The Remarkable Story of Inflation Futures
Article: For ‘Inflation Guy’ (and Shiller), Medical TIPS Are ‘Holy Grail’
Exhibit: SEC Filing for MacroMarkets Medical Care security
Website: IMX Health
Exhibit: CFTC filing announcing listing of Healthcare Index Futures
Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/