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His audiences know him as THE ”Inflation Guy.” In the inflation markets he is known as a pioneer. He is considered as the Expert to the experts in the world of inflation markets where true expertise is hard to find. In this podcast the Inflation Guy talks about the hidden tax, the insidious assault on your wealth, and how to defend your money. Have a question? Email InflationGuy@enduringinvestments.com
Episodes
Tuesday Feb 13, 2024
Tuesday Feb 13, 2024
Welllll...so much for the idea that, since the 3-month average of CPI was down at 1.90%, the Fed could ease in March! This month's inflation print was, to use a technical term, broadly icky. The Inflation Guy tells you why.
NOTES
Podcast callback: Ep. 98: Will You Be Able to Trade Medical Care Inflation Soon?
Blog Post: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (Jan 2024)
Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa
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Thursday Feb 08, 2024
Thursday Feb 08, 2024
The Inflation Guy for a long time has had a "bee in his bonnet" (seriously, who uses this phrase? Or owns a bonnet?) about the need for more tools to trade inflation and, especially, subcomponents of inflation like medical care. In this episode, after giving a quick preview of next week's CPI report he turns to a discussion of IMX, a new futures exchange that has expressed an intention to trade instruments related to medical care. At the end of January, the IMX announced its first futures contract. Does it get the ball rolling towards being able to trade medical care inflation? Listen to find out the Inflation Guy's take.
NOTES
Podcast callback: Ep. 32: The Remarkable Story of Inflation Futures
Article: For ‘Inflation Guy’ (and Shiller), Medical TIPS Are ‘Holy Grail’
Exhibit: SEC Filing for MacroMarkets Medical Care security
Website: IMX Health
Exhibit: CFTC filing announcing listing of Healthcare Index Futures
Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa
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Thursday Feb 01, 2024
Thursday Feb 01, 2024
The Inflation Guy sometimes gets distracted by shiny things. Today, he was distracted by an article sent from a listener, detailing comments from the CFO of Travelers Insurance about the increased reinsurance the company is employing as a hedge against inflation risks to its property and casualty (P&C) businesses.
This is an illuminating comment, showing both that (a) insurance costs are going up not just because insured property values are rising, but also because the cost of reinsuring is rising as inflation risks rise; and (b) major insurance companies are still not hedging inflation risk in P&C businesses with inflation hedges but rather through increasing reinsurance coverage. That's inefficient, and the Inflation Guy explains why.
Insurance and inflation! What could be more interesting than combining those two exciting topics?
NOTES
Article: Inflation on insured values main reason for Travelers extra reinsurance protection, says CFO
Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
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Check out the website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Thursday Jan 25, 2024
Thursday Jan 25, 2024
"Money Illusion" sounds like the sort of thing your economics teacher droned on and on about, causing you to yearn for a nice nap during class. But is it a real thing? And if it is...why does it matter?
In this episode, the Inflation Guy explains money illusion, presenting some of the evidence that it is (at least some of the time) a real phenomenon. He uses current observations where you can see money illusion at work, and then explains why it is very important that policymakers understand how important money illusion is, and over what time scales.
NOTES
Article: Fox News New Hampshire Voter Analysis Poll
Article: AP Poll from October
Blog Post: Shortages Are Unmeasured Inflation
Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa
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To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Thursday Jan 18, 2024
Thursday Jan 18, 2024
In this (longer than normal) episode, the Inflation Guy talks about the outlook for inflation - which, admittedly, he did last week with the CPI Summary episode but in this case he delves into more of the drivers of his 2024 and 2025 expectations - and for several asset markets. He frames the question as a balance of the risks and makes concrete suggestions for how he would tilt portfolios today.
Also, in response to listener requests, he lists several podcasts that he (very occasionally) listens to. "Recommend" is a strong word, but he likes these.
NOTES
Blog Post: 2024 Balance of Risks
Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa
Chart of Mortgage Origination vs Money Growth
Podcasts Referred to: Orion's The Weighing Machine, InsuranceAUM podcast, We Study Billionaires, Grant Williams Podcast, Demetri Kofinas Hidden Forces, What the Truck?!?, The Memo by Howard Marks, Fill the Gap.
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Check out the website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Thursday Jan 11, 2024
Thursday Jan 11, 2024
It's 2024, a fresh start to what is surely going to prove to be a golden year and the end to history! The SEC has approved bitcoin ETFs, the Fed is dovish and achieved a perfect landing, rates have come down a ton, and everything is beautiful.
At least, as long as inflation really does collapse immediately to 2%, as the consensus seems to suggest. Unfortunately, reality has a way of intruding in these sweet dreams and today's CPI report was frothy in some uncomfortable ways - not little one-offs, but big things like rents, and the stuff driven by wages. Listen to the Inflation Guy walk through the implications of today's number, and what it probably means for Fed policy and markets.
NOTES
Podcast Callback: Ep. 74: Inflation Folk Remedies
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Check out the website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Tuesday Dec 12, 2023
Tuesday Dec 12, 2023
It's the monthly CPI report! In this podcast, the Inflation Guy discusses today's economic data and highlights why the market's expectations for substantial easing in 2024 sets up a difficult path forward. He discusses several ways that inflation could get back to target, and then what needs to happen with policy to make that happen.
Hint: it isn't what the market is pricing right now.
NOTES
Blog Callback: Beware the Price Controller
Podcast Callback: Ep. 74: Inflation Folk Remediesv (discussing among other things the ‘new’ rental indices that supposedly imply rents deflation in the CPI)
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Wednesday Dec 06, 2023
Wednesday Dec 06, 2023
The notion of a 'safe withdrawal rate,' being a real amount that can be taken out of savings in retirement each year without a significant risk of running out of money in some window of time, goes back to a 1994 paper by Bengen which enshrined the "4-percent rule." In this podcast, the Inflation Guy discusses improvements to that rule - including some that he popularized - especially when it comes to the need to add some inflation-proofing to an asset mix that needs to keep up with inflation! The IG still prefers personal liability-driven-investing, but investment do-it-yourselfers who like rules of thumb need to know that there are easy ways to improve on the 4% rule...and some not-so-obvious pitfalls in using it blindly!
The Inflation Guy also responds to an excellent listener email about last week's episode.
NOTES
Podcast callback: Ep. 91: Quality Adjustment (?) in College Tuition Inflation
The Inflation Guy's Society of Actuaries paper: Maximizing Personal Surplus: Liability-Driven Investment for Individuals
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Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Wednesday Nov 29, 2023
Wednesday Nov 29, 2023
In this episode, the Inflation Guy considers the question of why college tuition inflation has consistently run drastically faster than headline inflation. Is it a productivity question, or a quality question? And what does 'quality' mean in the context of college education? There are a lot of complex issues to be considered here, which ordinarily would mean you shouldn't ask someone who does his best thinking in the shower, but because we are talking about inflation we are right in his wheelhouse. It's an interesting thought process, which brings up parallels to medical care, rides at Disney, and fins on automobiles!
The Inflation Guy also editorializes on Germany's recent decision to stop further issuance of inflation-linked bonds.
NOTES
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Tuesday Nov 14, 2023
Tuesday Nov 14, 2023
This month's CPI report was softer than expected, which is welcome. And there were some quantitative effects in the data which (while expected in the big picture sense) are encouraging. However, a lot of the improvement this month were from fairly obvious one-off categories that moved in the opposite direction from what third-party surveys (for example) were suggesting they would - and most of these will end up being paid back in another CPI report soon. The Inflation Guy walks through it all!
NOTES
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/