Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

Ep. 104: Inflation Snippets

Every once in a while, it is a good rigor to take all of those sticky notes that festoon your desk and put them into one, organized, document. At least, that's what the Inflation Guy tells himself. On the other hand, they say 'a clean desk means someone else is in charge.' Still, it was getting to be a fire hazard.

In this episode, the Inflation Guy tackles a few disparate stories and recent trends that seem to have an overarching theme: the general disinflationary trend we have been enjoying for the last year is starting to have some defectors.

NOTES

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Ep. 103: This Month's CPI Report - Sticky Too Soon

Another month, another above-consensus CPI print. The Inflation Guy tears into the data like a feral cat, ripping away the fatty bits to get at the meaty part. Okay, maybe that was too graphic. Anyway, this cat points to several signs in this month's inflation report that inflation is starting to get 'sticky' at a higher level than we'd like it to, and the recent inflation deceleration is going to get more difficult going forward. What is the implication for Fed policy?

NOTES

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Ep. 102: Gold and Crypto - Are Either, or Both, Real?

Both gold and crypto are occasionally put forth by promoters as having inflation-hedging qualities. Which of these has a better claim? Or are they both 'real assets' that can help you defend your money?

Now that mutual funds and ETFs are launching seemingly weekly to hold BTC and other forms of crypto, 'democratizing access' to this 'asset class,' it is worth asking whether these funds are securities that should be included in every investor's toolkit.

Listen to this episode before you take the plunge. In it, the Inflation Guy makes a very clear prediction about what is to come.

NOTES

Podcast callback: Ep. 86: If Gold is Like TIPS, Should I Buy it?

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Ep. 101: Live Long and Prosper with Inflation-Linked Annuities

This somewhat longer episode has a little bit of potpourri at the beginning, as the Inflation Guy covers the OER-Primary Rents divergence, the decline of Reverse RP balances, and the effect of AI on inflation...but the meat of the podcast is a discussion about a product (which a listener sent to the Inflation Guy) that resembles an inflation-linked annuity but in a mutual fund form. There are pros and cons to the product, and the IG covers them all before giving it a cautious thumbs up.

The Inflation Guy is pleased that we are starting to see more and more innovative products, even if there are still plenty of frontiers as yet unexplored. So he continues to boldly go where no inflation guy has gone before!

NOTES

Podcast callback: Ep. 54: Will Artificial Intelligence Kill Inflation?

Blog Post: AI: Even a Big Deal is Smaller Than You Think

Company reference: Stone Ridge Asset Management (Lifex Funds)

Google Sheet with Speculative Subcomponent Inflation Swaps: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/118FRJVhjGTLoRr1ebqfZn7opTlavtmt8XuyAQHicx5I/edit#gid=0

Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa

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Ep. 100: Looking Back and Looking Forward

When your grandpa turns 100, you're going to hear stories. It just goes with the territory. When a podcast has its 100th episode, same deal.

Grandpa Inflation Guy actually manages to keep the stories to a minimum, while reporting on a recent conversation he has had about a development in the health care inflation space and giving some optimistic readings about the future to the gathered listeners.

Now for some cake!

NOTES

Podcast callback: Ep. 98: Will You Be Able to Trade Medical Care Inflation Soon?

Podcast callback: Ep. 97: Inflation and Reinsurance - a Better Way

Google Sheet with Speculative Subcomponent Inflation Swaps: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/118FRJVhjGTLoRr1ebqfZn7opTlavtmt8XuyAQHicx5I/edit#gid=0

Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa

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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 99: This Month’s CPI Report - UGH!

Welllll...so much for the idea that, since the 3-month average of CPI was down at 1.90%, the Fed could ease in March! This month's inflation print was, to use a technical term, broadly icky. The Inflation Guy tells you why.

 

NOTES

Podcast callback: Ep. 98: Will You Be Able to Trade Medical Care Inflation Soon?

Blog Post: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (Jan 2024)

Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa

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Ep. 98: Will You Be Able to Trade Medical Care Inflation Soon?

The Inflation Guy for a long time has had a "bee in his bonnet" (seriously, who uses this phrase? Or owns a bonnet?) about the need for more tools to trade inflation and, especially, subcomponents of inflation like medical care. In this episode, after giving a quick preview of next week's CPI report he turns to a discussion of IMX, a new futures exchange that has expressed an intention to trade instruments related to medical care. At the end of January, the IMX announced its first futures contract. Does it get the ball rolling towards being able to trade medical care inflation? Listen to find out the Inflation Guy's take.

NOTES

Podcast callback: Ep. 32: The Remarkable Story of Inflation Futures

Article: For ‘Inflation Guy’ (and Shiller), Medical TIPS Are ‘Holy Grail’

Exhibit: SEC Filing for MacroMarkets Medical Care security

Website: IMX Health

Exhibit: CFTC filing announcing listing of Healthcare Index Futures

Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa

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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 97: Inflation and Reinsurance - a Better Way

The Inflation Guy sometimes gets distracted by shiny things. Today, he was distracted by an article sent from a listener, detailing comments from the CFO of Travelers Insurance about the increased reinsurance the company is employing as a hedge against inflation risks to its property and casualty (P&C) businesses.

This is an illuminating comment, showing both that (a) insurance costs are going up not just because insured property values are rising, but also because the cost of reinsuring is rising as inflation risks rise; and (b) major insurance companies are still not hedging inflation risk in P&C businesses with inflation hedges but rather through increasing reinsurance coverage. That's inefficient, and the Inflation Guy explains why.

Insurance and inflation! What could be more interesting than combining those two exciting topics?

 

NOTES

Article: Inflation on insured values main reason for Travelers extra reinsurance protection, says CFO

Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 96: Money Illusion - What it is and Why it Matters

"Money Illusion" sounds like the sort of thing your economics teacher droned on and on about, causing you to yearn for a nice nap during class. But is it a real thing? And if it is...why does it matter?

In this episode, the Inflation Guy explains money illusion, presenting some of the evidence that it is (at least some of the time) a real phenomenon. He uses current observations where you can see money illusion at work, and then explains why it is very important that policymakers understand how important money illusion is, and over what time scales.

NOTES

Article: Fox News New Hampshire Voter Analysis Poll

Article: AP Poll from October

Blog Post: Shortages Are Unmeasured Inflation

Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa

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Ep. 95: 2024 Call to Action

In this (longer than normal) episode, the Inflation Guy talks about the outlook for inflation - which, admittedly, he did last week with the CPI Summary episode but in this case he delves into more of the drivers of his 2024 and 2025 expectations - and for several asset markets. He frames the question as a balance of the risks and makes concrete suggestions for how he would tilt portfolios today.

Also, in response to listener requests, he lists several podcasts that he (very occasionally) listens to. "Recommend" is a strong word, but he likes these.

NOTES

Blog Post: 2024 Balance of Risks

Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa

Chart of Mortgage Origination vs Money Growth

Podcasts Referred to: Orion's The Weighing Machine, InsuranceAUM podcast, We Study Billionaires, Grant Williams Podcast, Demetri Kofinas Hidden Forces, What the Truck?!?, The Memo by Howard Marks, Fill the Gap.

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