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His audiences know him as THE ”Inflation Guy.” In the inflation markets he is known as a pioneer. He is considered as the Expert to the experts in the world of inflation markets where true expertise is hard to find. In this podcast the Inflation Guy talks about the hidden tax, the insidious assault on your wealth, and how to defend your money. Have a question? Email InflationGuy@enduringinvestments.com
Episodes
Wednesday Jun 12, 2024
Wednesday Jun 12, 2024
This month's CPI was a good number - happy news!
But if the Inflation Guy was going to design a 'good number' from scratch, he wouldn't make it look like this. He would start at the other end. What does that mean? Take a listen, and find out why this is a good report and a 'goods' report, but maybe not a great report.
NOTES
Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2024)
Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today”
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Wednesday Jun 05, 2024
Wednesday Jun 05, 2024
At the 2023 Fed conference at Jackson Hole, Chairman Powell promised that the Fed would keep fighting inflation "until the job is done." Is the job done? The Inflation Guy thinks the signs suggest inflation is converging on a higher level than the Fed desires. Will the Fed really keep after it? Listen and find out what the Inflation Guy thinks.
NOTES
Pod Callback: Ep. 109: Famous Last Words
Powell snippet: Source Bloomberg TV
Odd reference: Wikipedia on Mummenschanz
Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2024)
Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today”
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Wednesday May 15, 2024
Wednesday May 15, 2024
The economists were mostly on-target with today's CPI report, at least with the headline and core figures. But that doesn't mean that there was nothing going on underneath the surface. Below the big headlines, some things are getting better and some things...aren't. What does it all mean, and does the Fed have some cover to cut rates? Listen to this episode to hear the Inflation Guy's take on those questions!
NOTES
Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2024)
Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today”
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Monday May 06, 2024
Monday May 06, 2024
"They couldn't hit an elephant at this distance!"
- General John Sedgewick, Union, US Civil War, moments before he was struck by a bullet in the eye.
The tradition of 'famous last words' is alive and well, especially at the Federal Reserve and Treasury. From Bernanke saying the subprime crisis would be contained, to Yellen and Powell describing inflation as 'transitory,' and far beyond - the track record of overly-confident predictions that ultimately turn out to be hilariously wrong is alive and well. In this episode, the Inflation Guy discusses the most-recent candidate, from last week...
NOTES
Blog Callback: “You Cannot Inflate the Debt Away”
Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today”
Blog for last month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2024)
Interesting Interactive CPI Chart the IG Didn't Even Mention But is Worth Looking At
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Friday Apr 26, 2024
Friday Apr 26, 2024
There are several pernicious myths about the velocity of money that seem to never die. "Friedman said velocity is stable." "Velocity is just a plug number, so it is random." "Velocity is permanently impaired and only declines over time." These drive the Inflation Guy bananas, and from time to time he feels the need to talk about velocity. In this episode, the IG describes the main inputs into his model of velocity, and what the model currently implies about the future path of velocity from here. And, to be fair, he also kvetches some, and that's unseemly. We apologize for him.
NOTES
Blog Callback: “Enough With Interest Rates Already”
Podcast Callback: “Ep. 50: What the Money Velocity Comeback Means for Inflation, and Investors”
Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today”
Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2024)
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Thursday Apr 18, 2024
Thursday Apr 18, 2024
We don't know if the origin of the 'ten most dangerous words in the English language' was Ronald Reagan, or if the story predates him. But those words, "I'm from the government, and I'm here to help you," are the theme to today's podcast. The Inflation Guy interprets some recent news stories, but ties it all together with a crucial observation about what happens if the 'scarce resource' in a particular economy turns out to not be 'labor.'
NOTES
Dan Bongino Show from April 18 (https://megaphone.link/WWO9433765103 ). Listen from the 47 minute mark.
Forbes “Medical Analysis by Milton Friedman” (2009)
Washington Post “Biden administration to cap rent increases for some affordable housing units”
Blog Callback: “Inflation and Insurance Companies, with Bill Poutsiaka”
Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today”
Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2024)
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Wednesday Apr 10, 2024
Wednesday Apr 10, 2024
On this month's CPI report, the Inflation Guy addresses yet another high-side surprise and discusses the details, along with how this fits into the continuing narrative. Curious about how this concerns ponies? You'll have to listen to the episode!
NOTES
Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2024)
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Wednesday Apr 03, 2024
Wednesday Apr 03, 2024
Okay, buckle up because the Inflation Guy here is going to cover some big-time concepts. Wayyyy back in 2003, some guys named Jarrow and Yildirim explained how inflation acts just like foreign exchange, except not foreign and not on an exchange. No, no, stay with me here. Turns out they were right, and a lot of what is happening today - and the mistakes in interpretation that are being made - can be understood if you understand that the 'inflation FX market' has just changed in important ways. This is an important episode!
NOTES
Jarrow R, Yildirim Y (2003) Pricing treasury inflation protected securities and related derivatives using an HJM model. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 38(2):337–359. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=585828
Unidad de Fomento (Wikipedia entry): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unidad_de_Fomento
Chart: Nominal and inflation-adjusted Case-Shiller 10-City index, normalized to end of 2019
Chart: Nominal and Real S&P 500 Earnings, normalized to end of 2019
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Friday Mar 22, 2024
Friday Mar 22, 2024
Every once in a while, it is a good rigor to take all of those sticky notes that festoon your desk and put them into one, organized, document. At least, that's what the Inflation Guy tells himself. On the other hand, they say 'a clean desk means someone else is in charge.' Still, it was getting to be a fire hazard.
In this episode, the Inflation Guy tackles a few disparate stories and recent trends that seem to have an overarching theme: the general disinflationary trend we have been enjoying for the last year is starting to have some defectors.
NOTES
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Tuesday Mar 12, 2024
Tuesday Mar 12, 2024
Another month, another above-consensus CPI print. The Inflation Guy tears into the data like a feral cat, ripping away the fatty bits to get at the meaty part. Okay, maybe that was too graphic. Anyway, this cat points to several signs in this month's inflation report that inflation is starting to get 'sticky' at a higher level than we'd like it to, and the recent inflation deceleration is going to get more difficult going forward. What is the implication for Fed policy?
NOTES
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/