104.1K
Downloads
134
Episodes
His audiences know him as THE ”Inflation Guy.” In the inflation markets he is known as a pioneer. He is considered as the Expert to the experts in the world of inflation markets where true expertise is hard to find. In this podcast the Inflation Guy talks about the hidden tax, the insidious assault on your wealth, and how to defend your money. Have a question? Email InflationGuy@enduringinvestments.com
Episodes
Thursday Jan 11, 2024
Thursday Jan 11, 2024
It's 2024, a fresh start to what is surely going to prove to be a golden year and the end to history! The SEC has approved bitcoin ETFs, the Fed is dovish and achieved a perfect landing, rates have come down a ton, and everything is beautiful.
At least, as long as inflation really does collapse immediately to 2%, as the consensus seems to suggest. Unfortunately, reality has a way of intruding in these sweet dreams and today's CPI report was frothy in some uncomfortable ways - not little one-offs, but big things like rents, and the stuff driven by wages. Listen to the Inflation Guy walk through the implications of today's number, and what it probably means for Fed policy and markets.
NOTES
Podcast Callback: Ep. 74: Inflation Folk Remedies
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Tuesday Dec 12, 2023
Tuesday Dec 12, 2023
It's the monthly CPI report! In this podcast, the Inflation Guy discusses today's economic data and highlights why the market's expectations for substantial easing in 2024 sets up a difficult path forward. He discusses several ways that inflation could get back to target, and then what needs to happen with policy to make that happen.
Hint: it isn't what the market is pricing right now.
NOTES
Blog Callback: Beware the Price Controller
Podcast Callback: Ep. 74: Inflation Folk Remediesv (discussing among other things the ‘new’ rental indices that supposedly imply rents deflation in the CPI)
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Wednesday Dec 06, 2023
Wednesday Dec 06, 2023
The notion of a 'safe withdrawal rate,' being a real amount that can be taken out of savings in retirement each year without a significant risk of running out of money in some window of time, goes back to a 1994 paper by Bengen which enshrined the "4-percent rule." In this podcast, the Inflation Guy discusses improvements to that rule - including some that he popularized - especially when it comes to the need to add some inflation-proofing to an asset mix that needs to keep up with inflation! The IG still prefers personal liability-driven-investing, but investment do-it-yourselfers who like rules of thumb need to know that there are easy ways to improve on the 4% rule...and some not-so-obvious pitfalls in using it blindly!
The Inflation Guy also responds to an excellent listener email about last week's episode.
NOTES
Podcast callback: Ep. 91: Quality Adjustment (?) in College Tuition Inflation
The Inflation Guy's Society of Actuaries paper: Maximizing Personal Surplus: Liability-Driven Investment for Individuals
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Wednesday Nov 29, 2023
Wednesday Nov 29, 2023
In this episode, the Inflation Guy considers the question of why college tuition inflation has consistently run drastically faster than headline inflation. Is it a productivity question, or a quality question? And what does 'quality' mean in the context of college education? There are a lot of complex issues to be considered here, which ordinarily would mean you shouldn't ask someone who does his best thinking in the shower, but because we are talking about inflation we are right in his wheelhouse. It's an interesting thought process, which brings up parallels to medical care, rides at Disney, and fins on automobiles!
The Inflation Guy also editorializes on Germany's recent decision to stop further issuance of inflation-linked bonds.
NOTES
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Tuesday Nov 14, 2023
Tuesday Nov 14, 2023
This month's CPI report was softer than expected, which is welcome. And there were some quantitative effects in the data which (while expected in the big picture sense) are encouraging. However, a lot of the improvement this month were from fairly obvious one-off categories that moved in the opposite direction from what third-party surveys (for example) were suggesting they would - and most of these will end up being paid back in another CPI report soon. The Inflation Guy walks through it all!
NOTES
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Thursday Nov 09, 2023
Thursday Nov 09, 2023
The Inflation Guy has a little thing about risk. Not merely avoiding it, and certainly not seeking it - but counting it. By carefully decomposing risks into component parts, a portfolio manager can be better prepared for the sorts of risks that can befall a portfolio and also find cheaper ways to express the sorts of risk that he or she wants to have in that portfolio. In this episode, the IG talks about how he thinks of risks, and his mission to decompose everything.
Which sort of sounds gross when we say it that way.
NOTES
Podcast Callback: “Ep. 19: Dual Duration – Why TIPS are Exactly Half the Story”
Medical Care Inflation Security: Macro Shares Medical Inflation Up Trust (never issued)
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Friday Nov 03, 2023
Friday Nov 03, 2023
This morning's Payrolls Report was weaker-than-expected; among other things it included an increase in the Unemployment Rate to 3.9% - fully 1/2% higher than April's low for that number. Does this mean that we are going to have slower wage growth, and slower inflation? Or possibly one of those and not the other?
And what does it mean for growth? The Inflation Guy reviews the historical record of prior periods when the Unemployment Rate rose off a prior low, and reaches an unfortunate conclusion.
NOTES
Blog Callback: “The Phillips Curve is Still Working Just Fine”
Blog Callback: “Money Velocity Update!”
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Friday Oct 27, 2023
Friday Oct 27, 2023
In this too-late-in-the-week episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy takes on supply and demand curves, market clearing prices and quantities, and says you're doing it all wrong.
It's more nuanced than that, but they charge us by the word for these summaries.
NOTES
Blog Callback: “Shortages are Unmeasured Inflation” https://inflationguy.blog/2021/10/24/shortages-are-unmeasured-inflation/
Blog Callback: “Enough With Interest Rates Already” https://inflationguy.blog/2021/10/24/shortages-are-unmeasured-inflation/
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Wednesday Oct 18, 2023
Wednesday Oct 18, 2023
Sometimes, the episodes write themselves.
In Episode 84, the Inflation Guy pointed out that with real yields now comfortably above 2%, TIPS are at least fair and possibly just downright attractive from a long-term perspective. "Is it Time to Buy TIPS?" he asked.
But back in Episode 31, the Inflation Guy discussed "Why Gold is Like TIPS (or Vice-Versa)."
So, by the commutativity principle of podcasting (actually we just made that up), it follows that we should probably ask "Is it Time to Buy Gold?" So in this episode, the IG squares the circle and answers that question.
[He also clarifies that gold is lots heavier than TIPS. So they're not identical or anything. For that matter you can't make a necklace out of TIPS.]
NOTES
Podcast Callback: “Why Gold is Like TIPS (or Vice-Versa)” https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-31-why-gold-is-like-tips-or-vice-versa/
Podcast Callback: “Is it Time to Buy TIPS?” https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-84-is-it-time-to-buy-tips/
Blog Callback: “How Higher Rates Cause Big Changes in the Bond Contract” https://inflationguy.blog/2023/10/17/how-higher-rates-cause-big-changes-in-the-bond-contract/
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Thursday Oct 12, 2023
Thursday Oct 12, 2023
Another month, another CPI report. In recent months' reports, the Inflation Guy has warned "Don't Get Used to It!" (Episode 77) and "The Easy Part is Over" (Episode 81). Those months saw flaccid CPI figures that were easy to see through, and this month inflation returned to something approximating the old trend.
In this episode, the Inflation Guy walks through the report with an eye to what happened, but more importantly what happens next. You will want to know why he thinks that the hard part...has just begun.
NOTES
Praxis Financial Publishing Q&A of the Inflation Guy: https://lnkd.in/emCrcnHs
Blog Callback: “Enough With Interest Rates Already” https://inflationguy.blog/2023/06/21/enough-with-interest-rates-already/
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/