109.1K
Downloads
142
Episodes
His audiences know him as THE ”Inflation Guy.” In the inflation markets he is known as a pioneer. He is considered as the Expert to the experts in the world of inflation markets where true expertise is hard to find. In this podcast the Inflation Guy talks about the hidden tax, the insidious assault on your wealth, and how to defend your money. Have a question? Email InflationGuy@enduringinvestments.com
Episodes
Thursday Mar 07, 2024
Thursday Mar 07, 2024
Both gold and crypto are occasionally put forth by promoters as having inflation-hedging qualities. Which of these has a better claim? Or are they both 'real assets' that can help you defend your money?
Now that mutual funds and ETFs are launching seemingly weekly to hold BTC and other forms of crypto, 'democratizing access' to this 'asset class,' it is worth asking whether these funds are securities that should be included in every investor's toolkit.
Listen to this episode before you take the plunge. In it, the Inflation Guy makes a very clear prediction about what is to come.
NOTES
Podcast callback: Ep. 86: If Gold is Like TIPS, Should I Buy it?
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Thursday Feb 29, 2024
Thursday Feb 29, 2024
This somewhat longer episode has a little bit of potpourri at the beginning, as the Inflation Guy covers the OER-Primary Rents divergence, the decline of Reverse RP balances, and the effect of AI on inflation...but the meat of the podcast is a discussion about a product (which a listener sent to the Inflation Guy) that resembles an inflation-linked annuity but in a mutual fund form. There are pros and cons to the product, and the IG covers them all before giving it a cautious thumbs up.
The Inflation Guy is pleased that we are starting to see more and more innovative products, even if there are still plenty of frontiers as yet unexplored. So he continues to boldly go where no inflation guy has gone before!
NOTES
Podcast callback: Ep. 54: Will Artificial Intelligence Kill Inflation?
Blog Post: AI: Even a Big Deal is Smaller Than You Think
Company reference: Stone Ridge Asset Management (Lifex Funds)
Google Sheet with Speculative Subcomponent Inflation Swaps: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/118FRJVhjGTLoRr1ebqfZn7opTlavtmt8XuyAQHicx5I/edit#gid=0
Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Friday Feb 23, 2024
Friday Feb 23, 2024
When your grandpa turns 100, you're going to hear stories. It just goes with the territory. When a podcast has its 100th episode, same deal.
Grandpa Inflation Guy actually manages to keep the stories to a minimum, while reporting on a recent conversation he has had about a development in the health care inflation space and giving some optimistic readings about the future to the gathered listeners.
Now for some cake!
NOTES
Podcast callback: Ep. 98: Will You Be Able to Trade Medical Care Inflation Soon?
Podcast callback: Ep. 97: Inflation and Reinsurance - a Better Way
Google Sheet with Speculative Subcomponent Inflation Swaps: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/118FRJVhjGTLoRr1ebqfZn7opTlavtmt8XuyAQHicx5I/edit#gid=0
Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Tuesday Feb 13, 2024
Tuesday Feb 13, 2024
Welllll...so much for the idea that, since the 3-month average of CPI was down at 1.90%, the Fed could ease in March! This month's inflation print was, to use a technical term, broadly icky. The Inflation Guy tells you why.
NOTES
Podcast callback: Ep. 98: Will You Be Able to Trade Medical Care Inflation Soon?
Blog Post: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (Jan 2024)
Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Thursday Feb 08, 2024
Thursday Feb 08, 2024
The Inflation Guy for a long time has had a "bee in his bonnet" (seriously, who uses this phrase? Or owns a bonnet?) about the need for more tools to trade inflation and, especially, subcomponents of inflation like medical care. In this episode, after giving a quick preview of next week's CPI report he turns to a discussion of IMX, a new futures exchange that has expressed an intention to trade instruments related to medical care. At the end of January, the IMX announced its first futures contract. Does it get the ball rolling towards being able to trade medical care inflation? Listen to find out the Inflation Guy's take.
NOTES
Podcast callback: Ep. 32: The Remarkable Story of Inflation Futures
Article: For ‘Inflation Guy’ (and Shiller), Medical TIPS Are ‘Holy Grail’
Exhibit: SEC Filing for MacroMarkets Medical Care security
Website: IMX Health
Exhibit: CFTC filing announcing listing of Healthcare Index Futures
Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Thursday Feb 01, 2024
Thursday Feb 01, 2024
The Inflation Guy sometimes gets distracted by shiny things. Today, he was distracted by an article sent from a listener, detailing comments from the CFO of Travelers Insurance about the increased reinsurance the company is employing as a hedge against inflation risks to its property and casualty (P&C) businesses.
This is an illuminating comment, showing both that (a) insurance costs are going up not just because insured property values are rising, but also because the cost of reinsuring is rising as inflation risks rise; and (b) major insurance companies are still not hedging inflation risk in P&C businesses with inflation hedges but rather through increasing reinsurance coverage. That's inefficient, and the Inflation Guy explains why.
Insurance and inflation! What could be more interesting than combining those two exciting topics?
NOTES
Article: Inflation on insured values main reason for Travelers extra reinsurance protection, says CFO
Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Thursday Jan 25, 2024
Thursday Jan 25, 2024
"Money Illusion" sounds like the sort of thing your economics teacher droned on and on about, causing you to yearn for a nice nap during class. But is it a real thing? And if it is...why does it matter?
In this episode, the Inflation Guy explains money illusion, presenting some of the evidence that it is (at least some of the time) a real phenomenon. He uses current observations where you can see money illusion at work, and then explains why it is very important that policymakers understand how important money illusion is, and over what time scales.
NOTES
Article: Fox News New Hampshire Voter Analysis Poll
Article: AP Poll from October
Blog Post: Shortages Are Unmeasured Inflation
Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Thursday Jan 18, 2024
Thursday Jan 18, 2024
In this (longer than normal) episode, the Inflation Guy talks about the outlook for inflation - which, admittedly, he did last week with the CPI Summary episode but in this case he delves into more of the drivers of his 2024 and 2025 expectations - and for several asset markets. He frames the question as a balance of the risks and makes concrete suggestions for how he would tilt portfolios today.
Also, in response to listener requests, he lists several podcasts that he (very occasionally) listens to. "Recommend" is a strong word, but he likes these.
NOTES
Blog Post: 2024 Balance of Risks
Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa
Chart of Mortgage Origination vs Money Growth
Podcasts Referred to: Orion's The Weighing Machine, InsuranceAUM podcast, We Study Billionaires, Grant Williams Podcast, Demetri Kofinas Hidden Forces, What the Truck?!?, The Memo by Howard Marks, Fill the Gap.
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Thursday Jan 11, 2024
Thursday Jan 11, 2024
It's 2024, a fresh start to what is surely going to prove to be a golden year and the end to history! The SEC has approved bitcoin ETFs, the Fed is dovish and achieved a perfect landing, rates have come down a ton, and everything is beautiful.
At least, as long as inflation really does collapse immediately to 2%, as the consensus seems to suggest. Unfortunately, reality has a way of intruding in these sweet dreams and today's CPI report was frothy in some uncomfortable ways - not little one-offs, but big things like rents, and the stuff driven by wages. Listen to the Inflation Guy walk through the implications of today's number, and what it probably means for Fed policy and markets.
NOTES
Podcast Callback: Ep. 74: Inflation Folk Remedies
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/
Tuesday Dec 12, 2023
Tuesday Dec 12, 2023
It's the monthly CPI report! In this podcast, the Inflation Guy discusses today's economic data and highlights why the market's expectations for substantial easing in 2024 sets up a difficult path forward. He discusses several ways that inflation could get back to target, and then what needs to happen with policy to make that happen.
Hint: it isn't what the market is pricing right now.
NOTES
Blog Callback: Beware the Price Controller
Podcast Callback: Ep. 74: Inflation Folk Remediesv (discussing among other things the ‘new’ rental indices that supposedly imply rents deflation in the CPI)
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/