Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

Ep. 54: Will Artificial Intelligence Kill Inflation?

The question that Inflation Guy addresses is causal: does the productivity enhancement promised by AI mean that future inflation will be lower, or not?

But in order to boost productivity, we asked ChatGPT to write the synopsis. After trimming most of the 538-word answer, the only relevant bit was this:

"In this episode, we explore the potential role of artificial intelligence (AI), a rapidly advancing technology that enables machines to learn from data and make predictions or decisions, in shaping the future of inflation. Can AI help us manage inflation more efficiently and effectively, or could it exacerbate the risks of inflation in unexpected ways? What are some examples of AI applications that have already influenced inflation dynamics, and what are some challenges and opportunities for further research and development?"

That isn't at all what this episode is about. Although admittedly it sounds interesting.

 

Ep. 53: This Month’s CPI Report - Sticky Categories Are Still Sticky

In this month's CPI Report from the Inflation Guy, he points out that a report that is broadly strong, with some negative outliers, does not have the same implications as one that is broadly weak, with some negative outliers. The market was expecting the latter, but got the former. That inflation target of 2% is not looking any closer today.

Ep. 52: State of Inflation Address

The Inflation Guy delivers the State of Inflation Address with accuracy, brevity, clarity, and euphony. Well, two out of four isn't bad. If you listen to only one State of the Union Address this year, listen to this one...also!

Be sure to tune in on Tuesday for the monthly CPI Report summary, which will be longer, and with less background music.

Ep. 51: Should You Care About the CPI Re-weighting?

In this episode, the Inflation Guy explains why the Bureau of Labor Statistics is re-weighting CPI beginning with the report on February 14th, and what it means for you. He also points out that the prior re-weighting really did dampen inflation measurements a little bit...is the government trying to hold down the inflation report??

Ep. 50: What the Money Velocity Comeback Means for Inflation, and Investors

With today's report of Q4 GDP, money velocity jumped the most in a quarter since 1981 (with the exception of the bounce in late 2020), and the most in a year since 1982. Velocity, it seems, is not 'permanently impaired'! It acts more like a car trailer attached to the car by a spring, and it's starting to catch up. This has large implications for inflation going forward, and for investors.

Ep. 49: Do Inflation Expectations Affect Inflation?

In his never-ending quest to shine a light in the benighted economic darkness, the Inflation Guy today discusses a key component of the Fed's inflation models: consumer inflation expectations. Let's be fair, I think he leaned too much on Jeremy Rudd's paper in this one, but at least he delivered it with his inimitable Inflation Guy style. Listen, like, and recommend!

Ep. 48: This Month’s CPI Report - It’s Not Easy Being ’Mean’

In this month's CPI summary, the Inflation Guy ruminates on an as-expected number and wonders whether 'returning to the mean' is as important as the question of whether the mean has shifted, and where it has shifted to!

Ep. 47: New Year’s Resolutions

The Inflation Guy has hopes and dreams too, you know. In this episode, the Inflation Guy muses about things he'd like to accomplish in 2023 - and also suggests some things that you, the listener, ought to resolve. Kinda presumptuous if you ask me, but they just pay me to write the summaries.

Ep. 46: This Month’s CPI Report - Why Does Christmas Come But Once a Year?

In this edition of the monthly CPI report review, the Inflation Guy examines the small downside surprise in today's report, and blames Christmas. The Inflation Grinch explains that as it happens Christmas comes but once a year, but in 2022 more of it seems to be in November. Or something like that. To be honest I was too hopped up on eggnog to follow.

Ep. 45: Is Crypto a Hedge Against Inflation?

In this episode, Inflation Guy attempts to conquer territory previously held by Captain Obvious as he addresses the question of whether cryptocurrency can be a hedge against inflation. Or against anything else, for that matter. In this episode he also presents an important rule of investing: it is not supposed to be exciting.