Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

Ep. 123: This Month's CPI Report - Inflation Peek-a-Boo

One of the perils of being an analyst (although the Inflation Guy happens to be an investor and trader, and only coincidentally an analyst) is that behavioral biases tend to make us exaggerate the importance of any small collection of data. This appears to be what happened in the summer, when a couple of low CPI prints persuaded the Federal Reserve that the inflation battle was essentially won and it could turn its attention to the developing weakness in the economy.

Peek-a-boo! Over the last couple of months, inflation has come back to just about exactly where it was before the dip during the summer, raising at least the tickle of a question about whether the Fed's 50bps interest rate cut recently could constitute a policy error. In this episode, the Inflation Guy breaks down the data and opines on this topic.

 

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (September 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/10/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-september-2024/)

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    (we may close up subscriptions to this soon)

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 122: The Role of Linkers in Portfolio Construction, with Chris Clothier

The Inflation Guy Podcast welcomes a special guest this week: Chris Clothier, co-CIO of UK asset manager CG Asset Management. Together, Chris and the Inflation Guy discuss how they think about inflation-linked bonds in the context of a portfolio: how to think about their return; different aspects of their risk; and what role/benefit they play in the construction of an 'all-weather' portfolio.

Please welcome Chris Clothier to the podcast!

 

NOTES

David Hackett Fischer, The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History. (https://www.amazon.com/Great-Wave-Revolutions-Rhythm-History/dp/019512121X )

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (August 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/09/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-august-2024/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    (we may close up subscriptions to this soon)

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 121: Real-Feel Inflation: Why Inflation FEELS Higher Than It Is

A rogue's gallery of inflation hucksters have made lots of money over the years by preying on the sense that the average consumer/investor has that "my inflation is higher than the CPI," with some spin usually on how the gov'mint is intentionally understating inflation for some nefarious reason. These hucksters take advantage of the fact that, for reasons that are so native to the economic system that Daniel Kahneman won a Nobel Prize for describing them, consumers perceptions are not just biased, but biased in systematic ways - which, in the case of inflation, always tends to increase the perceived level of inflation.

In this episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy explains how these biases operate on our sense of inflation. If you too want to sound erudite at your next cocktail party - "Actually, Muffy, inflation just seems like it's 10% because..." - then this is a must-listen episode. If not, then you're also probably invited to more cocktail parties than the Inflation Guy is.

 

NOTES

Ashton, Michael, “Real-Feel” Inflation: Quantitative Estimation of Inflation Perceptions, Business Economics, Volume 47, pages 14–26, (2012)  (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/be.2011.35 )

Blog callback: Eighth Grade Math vs Shadowstats (https://inflationguy.blog/2021/05/25/eighth-grade-math-vs-shadowstats/ )

Podcast callback: Ep. 72: Chapwood Index vs CPI – Which is the Better Inflation Index?     (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-72-chapwood-index-vs-cpi-%e2%80%93-which-is-the-better-inflation-index/ )

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (August 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/09/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-august-2024/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    (we may close up subscriptions to this soon)

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 120: This Month's CPI Report - Down to the Big Sticky

It's that time again, time for the CPI report, and the Inflation Guy tackles it with his usual enthusiasm. Now, some people think when they hear from a guy called "The Inflation Guy" that everything is going to be about how inflation is higher than you think, and you should buy gold gold gold gold or bitcoin bitcoin bitcoin. But you don't get to be The Inflation Guy(tm) by systematically being wrong half the time. In this episode, the IG explains how this report isn't as bad as it looks, and most importantly should not change the Fed's decision about whether to cut rates by 25bps or 50bps next week. Listen to find out why!

 

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (August 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/09/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-august-2024/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    (we may close up subscriptions to this soon)

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 119: August Cleanup

The August vacation time is over, and we now hurtle into the unknown last third of the year. The Inflation Guy starts this journey by clearing his desk of the small inflation stories that are interesting and worth discussing, but don't by themselves warrant a full episode. He discusses power, supply chains, price-linked currencies, Japan's experience with trying to get more inflation, and sticky renters. Enjoy, and find all of the links to the source articles below!

 

NOTES

Blog Post: “A Price-Linked USD” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/08/28/a-price-linked-usd/ )

WSJ Article: “Pay Your Rent, Get 2% Cash Back: Landlords Join Craze for Rewards” (https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/pay-your-rent-get-2-cash-back-landlords-join-craze-for-rewards-8bf68ee3)

Utility Dive: “PJM capacity prices hit record highs, sending build signal to generators” (https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pjm-interconnection-capacity-auction-vistra-constellation/722872/ )

Reuters: “US importers balk at return of $10,000 container shipping rate” (https://www.reuters.com/business/us-importers-balk-return-10000-container-shipping-rate-2024-07-15/ )

NY Times “Japan Wanted Higher Inflation. It’s Here, and It Hurts.” (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/29/business/japan-inflation-rates.html )

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (July 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/08/14/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-july-2024/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    (we may close up subscriptions to this soon)

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 118: This Month's CPI Report - A Reverse Pony?

It's time for another CPI Report analysis, and the Inflation Guy wades through the confusing report to conclude that...it's not quite as good as it looks. In Episode 106, he talked about a "Potential Pony Situation." Is this a reverse pony situation?

What the heck does that even mean? Who writes this stuff?

 

NOTES

Podcast Callback: “Ep. 106: This Month's CPI Report - A Potential Pony Situation” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-106-this-months-cpi-report-a-potential-pony-situation/ )

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (July 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/08/14/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-july-2024/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 117: The Why Behind the Slide – and What it Means for Inflation

In this episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy begins by addressing the recent stock market sell-off and tells you what is really causing it. Hint: he told you in Episode 116 it was going to happen. And: if we are actually headed into a recession and possibly a bear market, what does that mean for inflation? Keep your eyes on the macro, not the micro. The Inflation Guy tells you what that means.

NOTES

Podcast Callback: “Ep. 116: Political Volatility” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-116-political-volatility/ )

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (June 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/07/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-june-2024/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 116: Political Volatility

Perhaps a little less coffee would be in order. The Inflation Guy in this episode wanders through several topics, including the Biden Administration's proposal for national rent control, the eviction moratorium, different measures of rent inflation, market volatility and where to hide for the next 110 days until the US election. Focus, man, focus. Still, he has useful contributions on these topics! Listen and see.

 

NOTES

Podcast Callback: “Ep. 37: Bad Idea of the Year - Wage and Price Controls” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-37-bad-idea-of-the-year-wage-and-price-controls/ )

Podcast Callback: “Ep. 7: Rents and Sensibility” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-7-rents-and-sensibility/ )

Podcast Callback: “Ep. 74: Inflation Folk Remedies” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep74-inflation-folk-remedies/ ) (This is the one the IG mentioned where he discusses ATRR and NTRR).

Blog Post: “The Residual Effect on Rent Inflation of the Eviction Moratorium” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/07/18/the-residual-effect-on-rent-inflation-of-the-eviction-moratorium/ )

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (June 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/07/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-june-2024/ )

Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today”

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 115: This Month's CPI Report - Closer to What We Want

It's that time again, and even though the punditry is now fixated more on the Unemployment Report than the inflation reports, the Inflation Guy doesn't have the trademark or the expertise to be The Unemployment Guy so this podcast is sticking to its knitting. This month's CPI report was the best we have seen in some time, and largely for the right reasons. Are there still things that need to happen for us to be safely on the road to low-and-stable inflation? Yes indeed - and the Inflation Guy discusses those things in this episode.

 

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (June 2024)

Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today”

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 114: Why Interest Rates Don't Matter for Inflation

One of the absolute rock-solid articles of faith in the economics community is the proposition that increasing interest rates causes inflation to decline. If you want to slow inflation by a lot, you need to increase interest rates a lot. There is no question that increasing interest rates slows economic growth, and hurts people by doing so. The only reason to do it is because economists believe strongly that it brings down inflation.

But what if it doesn't? In this podcast, the Inflation Guy argues that neither logic nor empirical observations support the notion that increasing interest rates - especially in the absence of restricted money growth - causes inflation to decline. And the basic reason that this relationship is indeterminate is easy to understand. The IG explains.

NOTES

Last Week’s Great Podcast! Ep. 113: Real-World Crypto Escapades, Concerns, Threats, and Promises

Chart of Interest Rates vs Inflation: https://bit.ly/4eJTZly  

Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2024)

Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today”

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/