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His audiences know him as THE ”Inflation Guy.” In the inflation markets he is known as a pioneer. He is considered as the Expert to the experts in the world of inflation markets where true expertise is hard to find. In this podcast the Inflation Guy talks about the hidden tax, the insidious assault on your wealth, and how to defend your money. Have a question? Email InflationGuy@enduringinvestments.com
Episodes

Thursday Mar 20, 2025
Ep. 137: Drug Prices and the Most-Favored-Nation Clause
Thursday Mar 20, 2025
Thursday Mar 20, 2025
The pricing and distribution of pharmaceuticals is one of the most opaque major pricing systems in the United States. There are oligopolies at the wholesaler level and at the Pharmacy Benefits Manager (PBM) level, which completely control consumer-level pricing. The Inflation Guy explains this system, which has attracted the ire of President Trump in the past since Americans also pay much higher prices for medications than consumers in other countries pay for the same medications; in 2020 President Trump called for a Most-Favored-Nation clause to be applied to drug companies but his first term ended before he could pursue it. Expect the topic to come up again...and this time, you'll understand why it's a great cudgel but doesn't really address the problem!
NOTES
Inflation Guy Blog Post: “Drug Prices and Most-Favored-Nation Clauses: Considerations” https://inflationguy.blog/2020/08/25/drug-prices-and-most-favored-nation-clauses-considerations/
Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/
Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (February 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/03/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2025/ )
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Wednesday Mar 12, 2025
Ep. 136: This Month's CPI Report – Settling in, Too High
Wednesday Mar 12, 2025
Wednesday Mar 12, 2025
It's time for the monthly CPI report, and this one seems apiece with other economic happenings recently: December and January were all over the place, but in February the inflation numbers are settling back down. The problem is, they're settling in at too high a level, and it gets harder and harder to see how we are going to get inflation back to the Fed's target. Not that the Fed really cares very much, and the Inflation Guy explains why that is.
NOTES
Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/
Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (February 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/03/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2025/ )
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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Tuesday Mar 04, 2025
Ep. 135: Is the DOGE Dividend Inflationary?
Tuesday Mar 04, 2025
Tuesday Mar 04, 2025
We are moving too fast, with too many topics! The Inflation Guy hits on four different topics today before running out of time and deferring some until the next episode. Today, (a) Is the 'DOGE Dividend' inflationary? (b) How impactful are 25% tariffs on the price level? (And ironically, taxpayers might actually make money in real terms on the deal). (c) Are we going to get a recession, and what does that even mean these days? (d) Why are implied volatilities so low with policy uncertainties so high?
More next week...
NOTES
Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/
Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (January 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/02/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-january-2025/ )
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter!
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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Friday Feb 21, 2025
Ep. 134: What if Prices Really Were Stable?
Friday Feb 21, 2025
Friday Feb 21, 2025
Today the Inflation Guy answers a listener's question, which is 'if the US were ever to have sustained 0% inflation, what would the effects be?' It is a simple question but it leads to some profound thoughts about what price stability is, and what it means...if anything.
Of course, you have to listen to the Inflation Guy's weekly gripe first, but you can fast forward through that part. (It makes him feel good so we leave it in.)
NOTES
Nalebuff and Ayres Book: Why Not?: How to Use Everyday Ingenuity to Solve Problems Big And Small https://amzn.to/4hKssS8
Blog Post on interest rates and inflation: “Enough with Interest Rates Already” https://inflationguy.blog/2023/06/21/enough-with-interest-rates-already/
Blog Post on Corn: “Corn Prices – Has the Correction Run its Course?” https://inflationguy.blog/2022/09/21/corn-prices-has-the-correction-run-its-course/
Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/
Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (January 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/02/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-january-2025/ )
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter!
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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Wednesday Feb 12, 2025
Ep. 133: This Month's CPI Report – I Guess We Are Still Transitory-ing?
Wednesday Feb 12, 2025
Wednesday Feb 12, 2025
It's the monthly inflation report for January's CPI, and this one was surprising. It would have been alarming, except that we have been through five years of inflation unlike anything we had seen since the 1980s. So, we're jaded. The Inflation Guy walks through today's report and considers wildfires, tariffs, and most-favored-nation status. A tour de force!
NOTES
Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/
Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (January 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/02/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-january-2025/ )
Blog on "Drug Prices and Most-Favored-Nation Clauses: Considerations" from August 2020 https://inflationguy.blog/2020/08/25/drug-prices-and-most-favored-nation-clauses-considerations/
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter!
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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Wednesday Feb 05, 2025
Ep. 132: Crazy is Anti-Inflationary
Wednesday Feb 05, 2025
Wednesday Feb 05, 2025
Today's episode is somewhat shorter than the norm, since last week's episode was a little longer than the norm. Today, the Inflation Guy notes that M2 money velocity declined very slightly in Q4, and points out a weird - but possibly important - effect that could have the perverse effect of dampening inflation slightly. (To be sure, the Inflation Guy thinks there are other, larger forces at play but this is an interesting one that is worth highlighting in case it continues!)
NOTES
Prior Podcasts from the IG on Velocity:
- Ep. 10: A High-Velocity Tour of Velocity (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-10-a-high-velocity-tour-of-velocity/ )
- Ep. 34: Velocity Turns Higher...Whoops! (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/velocity-turns-higherwhoops/ )
- Ep. 50: What the Money Velocity Comeback Means for Inflation, and Investors (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-50-what-the-money-velocity-comeback-means-for-inflation-and-investors/)
- Ep. 108: Revisiting Velocity - Myths and Reality (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-108-revisiting-velocity-myths-and-reality/ )
Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/
Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (December 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/01/15/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-december-2024/ )
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter!
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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Thursday Jan 30, 2025
Ep. 131: How Tariffs Affect You - Three Things You Maybe Didn't Know
Thursday Jan 30, 2025
Thursday Jan 30, 2025
It seems every day these days we hear about another tariff being applied to a trading partner of the U.S. (or, more usually, being threatened). The usual media reaction to these threats are something along the lines of saying "Oh my sainted aunt. This sort of talk gives me the vapors" because it is so, so, so bad. Tariffs are archaic shibboleths that no truly modern economist would ever support.
Come to think of it, that sounds like the archaic notion that money causes inflation. But we digress.
The Inflation Guy in today's episode discussed three things about tariffs that you might have thought you knew...and certainly everyone else seems to think they know...but which don't really work that way in the real world.
NOTES
Yesterday’s Inflation Guy blog on this topic: “Trump Tactical Targeted Tariffs: A Reminder of the Impact of Tariffs” https://inflationguy.blog/2025/01/29/trump-tactical-targeted-tariffs-a-reminder-of-the-impact-of-tariffs/
Ashton, Michael, The Efficient Tariff: Systematically Balancing Security and Welfare Concerns (March 1, 1992). The American Economist, Vol 36, No 1, 1992, pp 44-52. , Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2915287
Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/
Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (December 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/01/15/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-december-2024/ )
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter!
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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Friday Jan 24, 2025
Ep. 130: The Long-Term Effects of 4% Inflation vs 2%
Friday Jan 24, 2025
Friday Jan 24, 2025
Today the Inflation Guy answers a reader question. What are the long-term effects of having 4% inflation compared with 2% inflation? Does that small increase in the inflation rate have any important ramifications?
Hooo yeah you betcha it does. The Inflation Guy goes through a number of them, and feels like he probably left some out in the process.
Along the way, he also had some choice remarks about why the Federal Reserve next week and over the next few months, even though it has no economic reason to cut rates, may well still do so. Find out why.
NOTES
Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/
Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (December 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/01/15/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-december-2024/ )
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter!
To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/
Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Wednesday Jan 15, 2025
Ep. 129: This Month's CPI Report – This One Isn’t the Story
Wednesday Jan 15, 2025
Wednesday Jan 15, 2025
Let's face it: there is nothing more exciting than the monthly consumer inflation report. Don't we all agree on that? Is there any day that we collectively brace the day with such enthusiasm as the day the CPI report comes out? Surely not.
However, this month...the December CPI...just isn't the story. The Inflation Guy today dutifully addresses the data, but more importantly focuses on how the data is surely going to be different going forward due to many, many causes for inflection that are operating right now. This will change data, markets, and narratives. The IG guides you through it all!
NOTES
Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/
Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (December 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/01/15/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-december-2024/ )
Ep. 127: The Point of Inflation Inflection (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-127-the-point-of-inflation-inflection/ )
Website for California Wildfire official tracking (https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents )
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter!
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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Thursday Jan 09, 2025
Ep. 128: Will Wildfires Change the Inflation Trajectory?
Thursday Jan 09, 2025
Thursday Jan 09, 2025
It's 2025, and the Inflation Guy - like inflation itself, actually - is not yet dead. After a one-month hiatus, he kicks off the new year with a quick review of the current state of affairs and then addresses the question of whether the catastrophic California wildfires will help push inflation higher. It isn't as if that is the most-important thing to think about, when it comes to those fires - but it is worth thinking about all of the implications of large-scale disasters.
ERRATUM- IG refers to Bullard. Brain freeze. He meant Waller, a current member of the Board of Governors at the Fed.
NOTES
Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/
Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (November 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/12/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-november-2024/ )
Last 2024 Podcast “Ep. 127: The Point of Inflation Inflection” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-127-the-point-of-inflation-inflection/ )
Old Blog: “Some Effects on Inflation from Harvey and Irma” (from 2017) (https://inflationguy.blog/2017/09/11/some-effects-on-inflation-from-harvey-and-irma/ )
To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter!
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